Showing posts with label usdollar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label usdollar. Show all posts

Sunday, 24 August 2008

The dollar and Asian stocks | Forexgen


The U.S. dollar rose broadly on Monday, hitting a two-year high against sterling, as tumbling oil and gold prices left investors scurrying to buy back the currency and sparked a rebound in Asian stocks.
A rally in the dollar stalled last week after hitting a six-month high against the euro, but an upward trend in the U.S. currency is seen intact.
Recent reports showing shrinking or no economic growth in Britain, the euro zone and Japan have boosted the attraction of the dollar as an alternative investment, especially with crude prices trading at around USD 114 barrel, USD 33 below a record high hit in July.
Even billionaire investor and long-time dollar detractor Warren Buffett, chairman of conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway Inc, came to the currency's aid on Friday when he said in a television interview that he had no bets against the dollar.
Asian stocks rebounded from a two-year low as the drop in oil prices lifted exporter shares.
Japan's Nikkei share average jumped about 2 %, with shares of Honda Motor Co leading the way higher.

All Eyes Cast to The U.S. Calendar | ForexGen


Monday brings Existing Home Sales that are expected to move higher from 4.85M to 4.92M units waiting to be closed on. Whatever this prints at the market is likely to question how inventory levels are going to drop if Wall Street is not making credit available.
Tuesday brings New Home Sales, expected to hold at 530K, but again the market may only be looking for signs that the U.S. consumer can get credit, more than they are looking at the condition of the housing market. At 14:00 EDT the market also gets to see the Minutes from the recent FOMC rate meeting.
Wednesday brings Durable Goods Orders, and those products manufactured to last more than three years are looking to drop dramatically, reflecting the fact that the U.S. consumer is not consuming to the degree that the economy will need to sustain the U.S. debt levels.
Thursday brings the Gross Domestic Product numbers that reflect the value of all goods and services produced within an economic region. It is these numbers that the Fed is pinning its hopes on to reflect economic growth, and it is these numbers looking to increase from 1.9% to 2.6% that may help the dollar move higher. Quite how the economy is looking to increase by 50% to the expected 2.6% is explained by the fact that this preliminary read is the first of three that run over the next quarter; Preliminary which includes a 70% guess at the number, Advanced which is a 30% guess at the number, and Final, the actual number with no guess work making it up. This 2.6% is made up of 70% guess-work, and that may get slanted to the positive for many reasons.

US Stocks Rally Taking Dollar For The Ride| ForexGen


U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) rallied before Fed Chief Bernanke's speech on speculation that Lehman Brother's may receive capital from the Korean Development Bank. Also supporting was a massive drop in Oil on the back of easing geopolitical concerns and reopening of major pipelines in Turkey. Bernanke took some of the wind out of the Dollar's rally though with comments that slowing US growth would mediate inflation concerns indicating that the Fed would be able to keep target rates low for an extended period of time. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 34 points (1.44%) and the Dow Jones was up 197 points (1.73%). Crude Oil closed down $6.59 ending the New York session at $114.59 per barrel. Looking ahead, July Home Sales are forecast at 4.9 Million up from 4.86 Million in June.


The Euro (EUR) pulled back from Thursday's highs as Oil retreated and the USD rallied broadly. Eurozone data did little to support with the June Current Account blowing out to -8.2 Billion. Industrial Orders for June were better than forecast although still negative, down -0.3% in June or -7.4% Y/Y. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4759 and a high of 1.4909 before closing the day at 1.4790 in the New York session.


The Japanese Yen (JPY) reversed Thursday's losses gaining all day to reclaim the 110 level driven by buoyant equities and renewed risk appetite. Monetary Policy Minutes showed Bank of Japans concern with rising global Inflation and growing downside risks. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 108.33 and a high of 110.15 before closing the day around 109.90 in the New York session.